EUR, EUR/USD, USD, ECB, Fed, AUD/USD, Oil – Talking Points
- EUR It has since gained some support in Asia USD got a bump before
- The Fed is in their favor after solid data pushes Treasury yields higher
- The ECB is clearly hawkish.intention EUR/USD Uptrend resumed?
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How to trade EUR/USD
The euro stabilized in Asia after falling towards the New York close as the US dollar took off against other currencies. The pound and Australian dollar recorded their biggest losses, but are up slightly today.
The dollar outperformed the 2.0% expected, boosted by a roaring 3.0% retail sales increase in January when the previous reading of -1.1% was revised down to -0.9%.
Strong data seems likely to be met by further hawks from the Federal Reserve. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will speak later today.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde yesterday pledged to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at its next meeting. This is despite inflation decelerating over the past few months. The problem is that his latest overall CPI rate of 8.5% is well above his target of 2%.
Wall Street closed higher and Asia-Pacific stocks continued their rally with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (HSI) gaining more than 2%. Futures show a solid start to the North American session.
Treasury yields are a bit soft today, but have remained high this week. Benchmark 10 years he is trading near 3.80%.
The 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) continues to test the resolve of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), rising against 0.50%.
Australia lost 11.5,000 jobs in January, well below forecasts of 20,000 more jobs, and the unemployment rate jumped to 3.7%, up from an earlier forecast of 3.5%. I was. Declining participation rates contributed to the increase. AUD/USD was slightly stronger on the day, currently trading above 0.6900.
Crude oil has also stabilized at the WTI futures contract near 79 barrels, with the Brent contract eyeing an approach to 86 barrels. Gold looks comfortable around US$1,840 per ounce for now.
We’ll have plenty of ECB speakers in attendance today, and the US will see a lot of data on PPIs, housing starts, building permits, unemployment claims, and more.
You can view the full economic calendar here.
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The euro remains in the 1.0655 -1.0805 range for two weeks and these levels may offer support and resistance respectively.
The 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is at 1.0805, which could add weight to resistance levels.
On the downside, the nearby support could be at the previous lows of the 1.0655-70 zone before the previous lows of 1.0483 and 1.0443.
Chart created with TradingView
— Written by DailyFX.com Strategist Daniel McCarthy
please contact daniel @DanMcCathyFX on Twitter